Search results for "Estadística matemàtica"
showing 10 items of 12 documents
Field rules and bias in random surveys with quota samples : an assessment of CIS surveys
2018
Surveys applying quota sampling in their final step are widely used in opinion and market research all over the world. This is also the case in Spain, where the surveys carried out by CIS (a public institution for sociological research supported by the government) have become a point of reference. The rules used by CIS to select individuals within quotas, however, could be improved as they lead to biases in age distributions. Analysing more than 545,000 responses collected in the 220 monthly barometers conducted between 1997 and 2016 by CIS, we compare the empirical distributions of the barometers with the expected distributions from the sample design and/or target populations. Among other …
Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices
2017
A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the …
Automatic regrouping of strata in the goodness-of-fit chi-square test
2019
Pearson’s chi-square test is widely employed in social and health sciences to analyze categorical data and contingency tables. For the test to be valid, the sample size must be large enough to provide a minimum number of expected elements per category. This paper develops functions for regrouping strata automatically no matter where they are located, thus enabling the goodness-of-fit test to be performed within an iterative procedure. The functions are written in Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications) and in Mathematica. The usefulness and performance of these functions is illustrated by means of a simulation study and the application to different datasets. Finally, the iterative use of …
Consumo de substancias durante el embarazo y dimensiones de personalidad
2020
Este estudio evalúa los patrones de consumo de substancias durante el embarazo y las dimensiones de personalidad asociadas, en una muestra multicéntrica de 1804 mujeres de población general. En el 2-3 día posparto, completaron una entrevista auto-administrada sobre el consumo de alcohol, tabaco, cafeína, cannabis, cocaína, opiáceos, drogas de diseño, además de variables socio-demográficas, obstétricas/reproductivas, historia psiquiátrica previa, apoyo social durante el embarazo y el cuestionario de personalidad de Eysenck (EPQ-RS). Se generaron modelos de regresión logística múltiple. La prevalencia del consumo fue del 50% (N=909): 40% cafeína, 21% tabaco, 3,5% alcohol, y 0,3 cannabis. Las …
Effect of uncertain damping coefficient on the response of a SDOF system
2022
In this paper, a full probabilistic description of the response of a randomized SDOF system in both the time and the frequency domain is done. Considering that the damping of the structure does not simply relate to any single physical phenomenon, the sensitivity of the response to the randomness of the damping parameter is investigated. The stochastic analysis is conducted via the Probability Transformation Method therefore the first probability density function of the response is evaluated. The effect of the uncertain damping coefficient on the response of the SDOF system has been investigated through several numerical examples. From the response probability density function as well as fro…
Probabilistic solution of a homogeneous linear second-order differential equation with randomized complex coefficients
2022
In this paper, an exact expression for the first probability density function of the solution stochastic process to a randomized homogeneous linear second-order complex differential equation is determined. To complete the probabilistic analysis, the first probability density functions of the real and complex contributions of the solution stochastic process are also calculated. To compute the densities, the random variable transformation method is applied under general hypothesis, all coefficients and initial conditions are absolutely continuous complex random variables. The capability of the theoretical results established is demonstrated by several numerical examples. Finally, we show the …
Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks
2009
The objective of this study is to analyze volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the effects of the September 11, March 11 and July 7 financial crises. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the crises themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the crisis effect. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impact that terrorist attacks had on both markets. El objetivo d…
Bayesian classification for dating archaeological sites via projectile points
2021
Dating is a key element for archaeologists. We propose a Bayesian approach to provide chronology to sites that have neither radiocarbon dating nor clear stratigraphy and whose only information comes from lithic arrowheads. This classifier is based on the Dirichlet-multinomial inferential process and posterior predictive distributions. The procedure is applied to predict the period of a set of undated sites located in the east of the Iberian Peninsula during the IVth and IIIrd millennium cal. BC.
Bayesian correlated models for assessing the prevalence of viruses in organic and non-organic agroecosystems
2017
Cultivation of horticultural species under organic management has increased in importance in recent years. However, the sustainability of this new production method needs to be supported by scientific research, especially in the field of virology. We studied the prevalence of three important virus diseases in agroecosystems with regard to its management system: organic versus non-organic, with and without greenhouse. Prevalence was assessed by means of a Bayesian correlated binary model which connects the risk of infection of each virus within the same plot and was defined in terms of a logit generalized linear mixed model (GLMM). Model robustness was checked through a sensitivity analysis …
Introducing migratory flows in life table construction
2012
The purpose of life tables is to describe the mortality behav iour of particular groups. The construction of general life tables is based on death statis tics and census figures of resident populations under the hypothesis of closed demographic sys tem. Among other assumptions, this hypothesis implicitly assumes that entries (immigrants) a nd exits (emigrants) of the population are usually not significant (being almost of the same magnitu de for each age compensating each other). This paper theoretically extends the classical sol ution to open demographic systems and studies the impact of this hypothesis in constructing a life table. In particular, using the data of residential variations m…